Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
China's foreign reserves excluding valuation effects fell
Japan's real wage decline hurts consumption
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s all-out response on Friday to US tariff hikes is likely intended to get US-China talks going soon.
- We have cut our 2025 Japan GDP forecast by 0.2pp to 0.8%, due to the US tariff hikes announced last week.
- The BoJ is even more likely to hold fast on May 1, waiting for clarity, as Japan presses for lower tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
- …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
- Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean export growth accelerated in March, but due to post-holiday effects and front-loading or orders.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped in March, despite a robust new export order reading.
- Firms are worried about tariff hikes and political risks, with the impeachment ruling due on Friday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s official March PMIs showed lasting, though waning, stimulus support for activity.
- The manufacturing index is still above 50, but sentiment slipped ahead of likely US tariff hikes today.
- Construction new orders dived, raising questions about local-government investment activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
