Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Headline consumer inflation eased in June, as energy subsidies took effect.
- Rice prices are star ting to fall week-to-week, but broader food inflation is picking up.
- The bond market will probably be jittery after the Upper House election yesterday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
- …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
- Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's steadyish Q2 real GDP growth boosted by intensifying deflation; nominal growth lowest since Q4 2022
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance.
- The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish.
- M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Valuation effects explain 60% of China’s foreign exchange reserves rise in June.
- A rush to ship exports ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline likely contributed to the rise in reserves.
- Beijing’s moderate 2030 consumption growth target offers clues about China’s growth strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Producer deflation worsens due to weather hitting construction, a jump in renewable energy generation and trade frictions
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
China's worsening producer deflation mainly due to bad weather
Low core consumer inflation reflects weak demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s producer deflation is entrenched, but the worsening in June was due to temporary factors.
- Auto prices rose, after firms pledged faster supplier payments; other sectors are making supply policies.
- Weak core consumer inflation is indicative of poor demand; all eyes on the end-month Politburo meeting.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s wages took a big knock from a bonus plunge in May, as exporters’ profits were hurt by the tariff war.
- The headline large-manufacturer Tankan was oddly steady in Q2, despite the tariff war.
- Consumption still looks soft, despite one-off factors boosting May’s household spending data.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese policymakers are seemingly rethinking policy to rein in unbridled competition, after prior false starts.
- The key is political will—and a plan—to overcome vested interests, both local governments’ and firms’.
- Getting it right should lead to firmer pricing, stronger profits and less wasted capital investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Caixin PMI concurs with official index in showing manufacturing activity rebound
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
- …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
- Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
- The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
- The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Manufacturing activity index rises thanks to eased tariff tensions and domestic policy support
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
China's Official PMIs point to improving manufacturing and construction activity, but weak jobs market
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Tokyo inflation cools, thanks to restart of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
Tokyo inflation cools thanks to energy subsidies restart
China's industrial profits hit by slower investment income and weak demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
