Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
- The re-escalation of trade frictions highlights the lack
of trust between the US and China; more talks needed.
- September’s export rebound was partly due to base
effects, which mask weaker monthly momentum.
- The volatile nature of US-China trade relations still
poses a downside risk to China’s near-term growth.
- China’s industrial development model has sustained growth and resulted in world-class sectors like EVs.
- Policymaker s will aim to curb the undesired side effects of excess capacity while keeping its essence.
- They will aim to spur demand, but not at the price of limiting industrial and technological-led growth.
In one line: Japan's wage growth slows again, with bonuses hit by tourism weakness
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
- Governor Ueda’s upbeat comments on the Q3 Tankan lay the ground for an October policy rate hike.
- Economic conditions are soft, and political and trade risks linger, but the BoJ is keen to normalise policy.
- The Bank is likely to recognise a window of opportunity amid relative market stability to normalise policy.
In one line: Broad improvement ahead of investment stimulus
In one line: Manufacturing sector improved ahead of investment stimulus
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
Tokyo headline inflation steady, after launch of childcare subsidies
- China is preparing to counter the recent demand and investment slump with targeted stimulus…
- …Policy banks will likely provide RMB500B—leveraged up several times—to unblock local project investment.
- Steady Tokyo consumer inflation won’t shift the BoJ’s determination to normalise interest rates.
In one line: Manufacturing sector gloom amid tariff weight and political risks
Japan's flash PMIs reveal divergence between weakening manufacturing sector and resilient services activity
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
- We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
- The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's August broad activity cooling likely to prompt additional targeted support
- China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
- Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
- No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.
- In one line: Improvement in producer deflation appears mainly driven by short-term factors, more than policy yet
