Pantheon Publications
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Duncan Wrigley
- Policymakers won’t be flustered by the Q4 GDP growth slippage, hit by flagging investment and consumption.
- They can bank on solid export growth, thanks to burgeoning competitiveness in higher-tech products.
- Quasi-fiscal policy support backed by the policy banks is still coming through; more property support is likely.
In one line: China's Q4 GDP reports torpid domestic demand versus vibrant industrial output
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
- The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
- We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
- Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.
In one line: BoJ won't be fazed by slowing headline wage growth, as regular pay growth is relatively steady
- China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
- The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
- Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.
In one line: Sentiment rose, despite slowing demand
- China’s manufacturing PMIs ended the year on a positive note, but thanks to short-term effects.
- The construction PMI rose to its highest since March, but due to mild winter weather rather than stimulus.
- Policymakers will monitor the quasi-fiscal investment stimulus, while making only minor policy tweaks.
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
In one line: China's LPRs unchanged for seventh straight month amid lower tariff risks
China's LPRs unchanged for seventh straight month amid lower trade risks
In one line: Treading sideways
In one line: treading sideways
- The BoJ raised the policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% on Friday, surprising no one after earlier signalling.
- Governor Ueda struck a neutral tone when addressing the prospect of further rate hikes.
- Sluggish non-unionised wage rises and fragile growth will likely limit the BoJ to only one rate hike in 2026.
In one line: Reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
Japan's flash PMIs find reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
China's November activity data show goods consumption softening and fixed asset investment worsening
