Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
- Japan’s headline inflation ticked up in September, owing to higher energy inflation.
- The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday that addressing inflation was her top priority.
- The October flash PMIs point to a broad weakening in activity, both manufacturing and services.
In one line: Fading demand weighs on flash PMI manufacturing activity
In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- China’s industrial development model has sustained growth and resulted in world-class sectors like EVs.
- Policymaker s will aim to curb the undesired side effects of excess capacity while keeping its essence.
- They will aim to spur demand, but not at the price of limiting industrial and technological-led growth.
In one line: Japan's wage growth slows again, with bonuses hit by tourism weakness
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
- Governor Ueda’s upbeat comments on the Q3 Tankan lay the ground for an October policy rate hike.
- Economic conditions are soft, and political and trade risks linger, but the BoJ is keen to normalise policy.
- The Bank is likely to recognise a window of opportunity amid relative market stability to normalise policy.
In one line: Broad improvement ahead of investment stimulus
In one line: Manufacturing sector improved ahead of investment stimulus
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
Tokyo headline inflation steady, after launch of childcare subsidies
- China is preparing to counter the recent demand and investment slump with targeted stimulus…
- …Policy banks will likely provide RMB500B—leveraged up several times—to unblock local project investment.
- Steady Tokyo consumer inflation won’t shift the BoJ’s determination to normalise interest rates.
In one line: Manufacturing sector gloom amid tariff weight and political risks
Japan's flash PMIs reveal divergence between weakening manufacturing sector and resilient services activity
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
- We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
- The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
