Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI buoyed by post-holiday seasonality; oil price shock hits input prices
In one line: China's manufacturing activity resilient, despite jump in energy-related costs
- The official March PMIs support our view that China will be relatively resilient to the energy-price shock.
- Output and demand activity indicators were solid, despite the surging manufacturing input price gauge.
- Private-sector sentiment took a small dent in March, but nothing like the fall amid last year’s tariff war.
- China’s national long-term care reform should boost GDP by almost 1% by 2030...
- ...But more is needed to replace the 6%-of-GDP decline in housing investment since 2021.
- The BoJ’s new natural interest rate and CPI estimate don’t change the big picture; oil prices are key.
- domestic demand weakened, while manufacturers’ sentiment was resilient
- In one line: In one line: inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge
In one line: Japan's inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge; Services firms' sentiment dives to mid-2020 level
- Governor Ueda said yesterday he expects a moderate rise in underlying inflation...
- ...The BoJ’s base case appears to be a swift oil-price fall, with little effect on the long-term inflation outlook.
- But persistently sky-high energy prices would drive up food prices and could force an April rate hike.
- China residential property market remains in the doldrums, with a 43% drop in sales month-to-date…
- …Construction area is still declining, while developer funding improved slightly thanks to policy support.
- Korea’s 20-day exports maintained robust growth in March, riding strong semiconductor demand.
- In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
- In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery”
In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"
- China is seeking to rehabilitate private firms, as they can support national goals in tech development.
- Private firms have made some gains over the past couple of years, but are still recovering.
- They are bullish on prospects for sale s and consumer prices, but still glum on producer prices.
- IIn one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
In one line: BoJ on hold amid oil shock risks and divided inflation views
Japan's exports slow due to holiday calendar effects
Chip and electrical machinery shipments rise
- The BoJ held the policy rate yesterday, unsurprisingly given the ever-changing oil-price situation.
- Governor Ueda is keeping options open, amid different views on inflation among voting members.
- Our base case is a July rate hike, assuming oil prices fall in the coming months; but April is not ruled out.
- China faces the likely prospect of a modest bump in consumer inflation from the oil-price surge...
- ...Soft pork prices are likely to partly offset higher energy costs; but producer inflation could swing dramatically.
- Japan would be more vulnerable to an oil price at $150 per barrel, forcing an early BoJ rate hike.
- China’s activity data for the first two months of this year paint a brighter picture than we expected...
- ...But stronger consumption is largely a temporary effect of higher spending during the extended holiday.
- Policy-supported infrastructure investment rebounded earlier than we expected; property sector is still weak.
