Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
China's LPRs on hold, despite weakening demand data
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
- China’s broad credit growth edged up in July, only thanks to rapid government-bond issuance.
- Credit demand elsewhere appears lacklustre, with net long-term corporate loan repayments.
- Subsidies for consumer and services firm loans are helpful but unlikely to be a game-changer.
- China’s monthly export momentum slowed for a second straight month as the US reprieve expiry nears.
- Easing of the seasonally adjusted rate likely reflects fading stockpiling and transshipment demand in July.
- Shipments of pharma and rare earth surged after the ‘London consensus’ and ahead of Section 232 tariffs.
- China’s consumer sentiment is near historic lows, weighed down by property- and job-market worries.
- Employment sentiment is nearly as feeble as at the global financial crisis low point.
- More people expect broad inflation than deflation, which is largely confined to producer prices.
In one line: Buoyant Caixin services PMI points to pockets of strength, such as tourism
In one line: China’s manufacturing sector rocked by trade uncertainty
Caixin PMI reports falling export orders
Korean exports hold up thanks to front-loading, but domestic demand sags
- China’s July manufacturing PMIs were buffeted by headwinds from trade risk and bad weather.
- But sentiment improved slightly, showing business confidence in new products and markets.
- The dipping construction PMI partly reflects a downshift in local-government fiscal stimulus.
In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars
- The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
- The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
- The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.
- H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
- China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
- The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.
Tokyo headline inflation slows, despite rising food inflation
- Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
- But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
- The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.
In one line: manufacturing index slammed by falling output; July should be low point after US-Japan trade deal
Japan's weak manufacturing PMI should rise after US-Japan trade deal
Services activity rose
- Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
- ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
- The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.
