Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
- In one line: Improvement in producer deflation appears mainly driven by short-term factors, more than policy yet
In one line: China's producer deflation improvement mainly driven by short-term factors; consumer price fall is due to food prices, with core inflation rising
- China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
- Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
- Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI points to job risks after court ruling on social security contributions
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
- In one line: WDA-export growth holds up despite tariff ructions
- In one line: Modest activity gains
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs post modest gains; Korean exports propped up by chip exports
- History suggests that China’s stock-market rally could boost GDP but won’t do much for consumer sentiment.
- Policymakers will opt for targeted policy support, lest broad easing drives excessive funds into stocks.
- Tokyo headline inflation slowed in August due to energy subsidies; food inflation remains elevated.
In one line: Tokyo inflation fall mainly due to energy subsidies
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
In one line: BoK stays put amid US pressure not to weaken currency
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
China's industrial profits still falling in July
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
In one line: Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
Japan's slowing headline inflation won't shift BoJ's worries about rising food inflation
- Japan’s headline inflation slowed, despite a modest uptick in food inflation.
- The agriculture ministry has revised its diagnosis of the causes of red-hot rice prices; no easy fix is in sight.
- Stubbornly elevated food inflation strengthens the case for the BoJ to resume rate hikes in October.
In one line: China's LPRs on hold, despite July's weakening demand data
