Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
In one line: China's lopsided Q1 GDP growth bump likely the year's high-water mark
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- China’s first rise in producer prices in 41 months was partly due to the global energy-price shock...
- ...But it does not indicate an improvement in demand fundamentals nor the exit from low inflation.
- Producer prices for consumer goods continue to fall, while core consumer inflation is subdued.
In one line: China’s big drop mainly due to global market volatility, rather than domestic economy
- China’s 18.9% jump in manufacturing profits in January-to-February was largely due to high-tech sectors.
- Profit growth is likely to be hit by higher oil prices, but the damage should be less severe than in 2022.
- Auto sales should improve from their poor start to the year, but brutal competition is squeezing profits.
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI buoyed by post-holiday seasonality; oil price shock hits input prices
In one line: China's manufacturing activity resilient, despite jump in energy-related costs
- The official March PMIs support our view that China will be relatively resilient to the energy-price shock.
- Output and demand activity indicators were solid, despite the surging manufacturing input price gauge.
- Private-sector sentiment took a small dent in March, but nothing like the fall amid last year’s tariff war.
- China’s national long-term care reform should boost GDP by almost 1% by 2030...
- ...But more is needed to replace the 6%-of-GDP decline in housing investment since 2021.
- The BoJ’s new natural interest rate and CPI estimate don’t change the big picture; oil prices are key.
- domestic demand weakened, while manufacturers’ sentiment was resilient
- In one line: In one line: inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge
In one line: Japan's inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge; Services firms' sentiment dives to mid-2020 level
- Governor Ueda said yesterday he expects a moderate rise in underlying inflation...
- ...The BoJ’s base case appears to be a swift oil-price fall, with little effect on the long-term inflation outlook.
- But persistently sky-high energy prices would drive up food prices and could force an April rate hike.
- China residential property market remains in the doldrums, with a 43% drop in sales month-to-date…
- …Construction area is still declining, while developer funding improved slightly thanks to policy support.
- Korea’s 20-day exports maintained robust growth in March, riding strong semiconductor demand.
- In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
- In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery”
In one line: LPRs steady; PBoC aims for "price recovery"
