Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Duncan Wrigley
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
In one line: China's LPRs unchanged for seventh straight month amid lower tariff risks
China's LPRs unchanged for seventh straight month amid lower trade risks
In one line: Treading sideways
In one line: treading sideways
- The BoJ raised the policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% on Friday, surprising no one after earlier signalling.
- Governor Ueda struck a neutral tone when addressing the prospect of further rate hikes.
- Sluggish non-unionised wage rises and fragile growth will likely limit the BoJ to only one rate hike in 2026.
In one line: Reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
Japan's flash PMIs find reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
China's November activity data show goods consumption softening and fixed asset investment worsening
In one line: still looking for signs of private sector credit demand
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference last week was a damp squib...
- ...Unsurprisingly, given the relative calm compared with last year ’s impending tariff drama.
- Policymakers are signalling confidence, meaning they will stick to broad settings for 2026, with a few tweaks..
In one line:signalling confidence, no major course shift
- China’s December Politburo meeting yesterday signalled greater confidence in the near-term outlook...
- ...allowing renewed focus on long-term structural issues as well as near-term demand support.
- Exports rose 5.9% year-over-year in November, thanks to demand from non-US markets.
Politburo signals urgency to stabilise domestic demand
Chinese exports resume solid growth to non-US markets
Japanese wages lifted by bonuses
- China’s manufacturing PMIs indicate domestic demand remains lacklustre.
- A rebound in builders’ sentiment offers hope that the policy-bank funding support will gain purchase.
- China is likely to opt for targeted support, like expanded consumer subsidies at this month’s Politburo meeting
In one line: RatingDog PMI stung by waning domestic demand, despite buoyant overseas orders
RatingDog PMI stung by waning domestic demand, despite buoyant overseas orders
Korean manufacturing index treading water
