Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
- China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
- Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
- Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
