Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)
Export growth surprises to the upside, as electronics roar ahead
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s export growth surprised to the upside in May, thanks to a sharp rise in electronics exports…
- …This more than compensated for a fall in commodity exports and a drag from re-exports.
- Adverse base effects aside, electronics exports still has more fuel in the tank for a further recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Semiconductor export growth makes an impressive recovery in Singapore
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- It’s not often that a growth figure of -0.1% brings joy, but it did in the case of Singapore’s May exports...
- ...We found much to celebrate, as semiconductor exports are finally showing signs of life.
- We still expect the recovery in exports to be gradual but now see stronger signs of its likely durability.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Tapping an RRR hike to cool the property market.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Tapping an RRR hike to cool the property market.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The CBC made no change to its policy rate yesterday, but raised its RRR by 0.25pp...
- ...To stymie the flow of credit to the property sector, which has brushed off previous cooling measures.
- We expect the CBC to stay on hold, but upside risks to inflation might provoke another hike in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see the recent diesel-subsidy rationalisation in Malaysia as a net negative for retail sales growth...
- ...The impact on inflation is likely to be stronger, pushing the headline rate above 3% from June.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia plunged into the red in April; this year’s Ramadan splurge was limp.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Fret not, the recovery in electronics exports is still in place.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vehicle sales fail to offset retail weakness in Singapore.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Goods inflation U-turns, while services inflation remains sticky.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
- …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
- A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect growth to struggle for the rest of Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Improvement in Singaporean export growth down to base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects flattered Singaporean NODX growth in April, while real production is disappointing.
- The long-running slide in urban unemployment in India appears finally to have stalled in Q1.
- Remittances growth in the Philippines remains subpar; momentum is waning and the peso lift will fade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s export recover y is increasingly dependent on a continuation of US investment in AI.
- BNM is now likely to be on hold for the rest of 2024, as planned subsidy cuts bring upside risks to CPI.
- Falling real wage growth in Malaysia should soon star t dragging noticeably on retail sales growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Making peace with the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global