Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

21 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Plenty of reasons for an SNB rate cut today, but we think it will hold

It’s a close call, but we think the SNB will hold fire at today’s meeting and first cut in June instead.
Risks are tilted towards a rate cut today; markets are pricing in 40% probability of a move.
mItalian industrial production started the year on a weak footing, but EZ construction is holding up.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Slowing EZ labout cost growth supports ECB easing to start soon

Hourly labour cost growth took a leg down in Q4, in line with other wage growth measures.
Leading indicators suggest pay growth is easing again in Q1; we look for it to fall throughout 2024.
The ECB can’t afford to wait for the all clear from wage negotiations to start easing policy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor EURUSD to rise further this year; Spain budget delay no big deal

Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials still point to upside risks for EURUSD.
We continue to believe EURUSD is good value below 1.10; a rise to 1.15 should be possible.
Spain will continue to outperform despite the government ditching its attempt to set a budget.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, January 2024

In one line: Distorted by the Irish data, again.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor We still think BTP-Bund spread will fall to 100bp by year-end

The BTP-Bund spread has fallen, in line with our call; we still believe it will hit 100bp by year-end.
Will the attractive carry maintain foreign investor appetite for BTPs in 2024? We think so.
Assuming no fiscal disasters, BTPs will continue to close the gap to their Spanish counterparts.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q4 2023

In one line: GDP went nowhere last year; slowing wage growth supports June ECB rate cut.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, January 2024

In one line: Still on a downtrend, but the outlook is getting brighter.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, January 2024

In one line: Disappointing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italian GDP recovering, but heed the risk to investment

Quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Italy will pick up pace this year, despite falling investment...
...But our forecasts still point to GDP rising by just 1.0% this year, the same as last year.
The risks to our call are a bigger fall in capex than we expect, and a smaller increase in consumption.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: One for the hawks; slowdown easing quicker than previously thought and price intentions rise.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: One for the hawks; slowdown easing quicker than previously thought and price intentions rise.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation slides again, but not enough for a rate cut this month

Swiss inflation edged down in February; it has been in line with the SNB’s target for eight months.
It fell less than we expected; we are pushing out our forecast for the first SNB rate cut to June.
The changing of the guard at the SNB in September won’t alter the outlook for monetary policy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone