Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, August 2025

In one line: Still pointing to downside risks. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.  

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Down further below its long-run average. 

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Down again but up over Q2 still.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, August 2025

In one line: Up, but output is still falling.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, August 2025

In one line: Up, but output is still falling.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

22 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ activity expanded in mid-Q3, despite higher US tariffs

• The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected… 
• ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August. 
• Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line:  Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

21 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Higher EZ inflation coming, but we still see a September rate cut

• Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose. 
• Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs. 
• For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.

20 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Foreigners were favouring EZ assets even before higher US tariffs

• The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance. 
• Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade. 
• Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.

19 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide

• The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures. 
• Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June. 
• We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2. 

EZ Datanote: GDP (2nd Est.), Employment & Industrial Production, EZ, Q2/June 2025

In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, July 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a low level.  

15 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP slowed in Q2 and will fall outright in Q3, marginally

• The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry. 
• Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
• The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.