Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, November 2023

In one line: A sixth straight monthly decline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rise in Swiss Inflation in December Unlikely to Preclude Rate Cut in Q1

The small increase in Swiss inflation in December leaves it in line with the SNB’s target...
...Inflation will fall back soon, despite the VAT hike; we look for the Bank to cut its policy rate in March.
EZ unemployment will rise, though only marginally; still-low joblessness need not deter ECB rate cuts.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ESI/Retail Sales, EZ, Dec/Nov 2023

In one line: Services sentiment pulled up the ESI at the end of 2023; Retail sales were still going nowhere in November.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, January 2024

In one line: Up again, pointing to upside for the PMI.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, December 2023

In one line: Jump in services sentiment leads the way; will it be sustained?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, December 2023

In one line: Not enough to convince us consumption rose in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor We're Below Consensus on Growth and Inflation; ECB to Cut in March

GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, December 2023

In one line: Not as good as the headline would suggest.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor German Consumers Still Refusing to Spend; Construction Struggling

German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone