Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line:  Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

21 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Higher EZ inflation coming, but we still see a September rate cut

• Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose. 
• Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs. 
• For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.

20 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Foreigners were favouring EZ assets even before higher US tariffs

• The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance. 
• Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade. 
• Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.

19 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide

• The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures. 
• Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June. 
• We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2. 

EZ Datanote: GDP (2nd Est.), Employment & Industrial Production, EZ, Q2/June 2025

In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.