Pantheon Publications

8 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Construction PMI rise still under-estimating growth in the sector

• The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany. 
• Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France. 
• The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.

6 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July

• Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
• Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
• …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, April 2025

In one line: Consistent with slower growth in Q2. 

2 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Trade uncertainty is now weighing on Eurozone investment

• We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment. 
• Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock. 
• Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q1 2025

In one line: GDP growth pick up in Q1 will prove short-lived as trade uncertainty hits. 

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, April 2025

In one line: Business sentiment sours on pessimism in services.