Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.
In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.
- In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.
- In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.
In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
In one line: Worse than we thought; upside risks loom for Q4.
In one line: Drag from net trade in goods disappeared in Q3, as US exports jumped, supporting the confirmed picked up in GDP growth.
In one line: Lowest in the Eurozone.
In one line: Disappointing rebound; we don’t trust it.
- EZ industrial production had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3, if you believe Eurostat’s figures.
- Construction, meanwhile, is set to have been a drag, while services pulled GDP up by 0.2%.
- Surveys point to a jump in services output ahead, but meagre moves in construction and industry.
In one line: Reversing August’s fall; Q4 will be better.
- ECB doves hoping for help from the euro to pull a December cut over the line will be disappointed…
- ...We expect a further softening in the euro to 1.15 by year-end, before a slight pick-up next year, to 1.17.
- Spanish and Italian surveys for early Q4 are too upbeat, in our view.
In one line: Down but still consistent with faster GDP growth in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will be better, we think.
In one line: Up less in Q3 than Q2.
- Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range.
- We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise.
- Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.
