Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Falling imports boost surplus.
- Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target.
- Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
- ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition.
In one line: Spending on goods in EZ went nowhere in Q3.
In one line: Not quite the catch up we expected but still pointing to upside risks to growth.
In one line: Down marginally, likely rebounded in September.
- In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
In on line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
- Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026.
- The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term…
- ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.
In one line: Consistent with a rebound in GDP in Q3.
In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?
In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?
- The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.0% yesterday, where we now think it will stay until 2027.
- The Bank said it was keeping its options open, but in our view the Chairman closed the door to more cuts.
- The next move in Swiss rates will be upward, despite inflation likely falling to year-end and downside risks.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Improving, but still subdued.
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.
In one line: The drag on GDP from net trade in goods is disappearing.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
In one line: Held back by a drop in energy.
