In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP growth likely slowed sharply in Q2 from the 0.8% q/q read in Q1 led by tariff front-running.
- Hard data and surveys imply a print of around 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Switzerland will enter recession in H2, even if “gold will not be tariffed!”.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal.
- Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it.
- The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
- ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs.
- We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
- The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
- EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
