Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: On hold, as we expect it to be until early 2027.
- In one line: On hold, as we expect it to be until early 2027.
- The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected.
- Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027.
- The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
In one line: Italian industry will be back on track after stumbling in October.
- The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
- Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
- The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.
In one line: Rise in surplus propped up by trade with EU partners.
- German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4.
- Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3.
- Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.
- German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry.
- French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October.
- The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.
In one line: Ending the year on a slightly more cheerful note.
In one line: Up sharply; autos yet to reverse fall in August.
In one line: Revised up despite another drag from net trade.
- In one line: Revised up despite a drag from net trade.
In one line: Orders rise again, boosted by major orders.
In one line: Spanish industry outperforms its French counterpart early in Q4.
In one line: Not much of a start to Q4.
- In one line: Swiss economy still struggling according to PMI.
In one line: Swiss economy still struggling according to PMI.
In one line: Still very poor.
- The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
- ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
- Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.
- Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
- It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
- The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.
