Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ activity expanded in mid-Q3, despite higher US tariffs

  • The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected… 
  • ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August. 
  • Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line:  Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Higher EZ inflation coming, but we still see a September rate cut

  • Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose. 
  • Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs. 
  • For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Foreigners were favouring EZ assets even before higher US tariffs

  • The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance. 
  • Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade. 
  • Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ goods trade surplus nears zero as US exports continue to slide

  • The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures. 
  • Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June. 
  • We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence