Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, Sep 2025

In one line: Still pointing to decent growth alongside credit figures

28 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor More data to suggest underlying resilience in the EZ economy

• Lending to the private sector is slowing at the margin but underlying momentum remains solid… 
• ...Our measure of the credit impulse points to EZ GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q4. 
• Germany’s IFO survey adds to the message from the PMI that a rebound there will lead the way in Q4.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity. 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity. 

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: On the up, but still subdued. 

23 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ budget deficit now widening because of German spending

• The EZ general government budget deficit held steady in Q2, as revenue and expenditure both rose. 
• It is likely growing now, as Germany has started to spend more earnestly, and will widen again next year. 
• The EZ deficit will likely rise to 3.5% of GDP this year, 3.8% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, from 3.1% in 2024.

21 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP likely grew by 0.1% over the quarter in Q3, as in Q2

• GDP in Germany and Italy likely improved relative to Q2, but growth in France and Spain probably fell. 
• EZ GDP growth is likely to have held steady, at just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter. 
• Q4 is set to be a touch better, as the drag from net trade fades, thanks to falling imports.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Significant back revisions mean Q3 was likely better than Q2. 

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.

17 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ-US trade dwindling; little sign of trade diversion from China

• Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes. 
• The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts. 
• The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Investors think things will get worse before they get better in Germany.

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Falling imports boost surplus.

9 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Italy's fiscal plans actually make sense...yes, we're shocked too

• Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target. 
• Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
• ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Spending on goods in EZ went nowhere in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Not quite the catch up we expected but still pointing to upside risks to growth.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, August 2025

In one line: Down marginally, likely rebounded in September.

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, September 2025

• In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.