Pantheon Publications

5 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Hawkish inflation read in Switzerland; is a recession ahead?

• Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
• ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs. 
• We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a record low. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.

1 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation in July not as decisively dovish as we were expecting

• HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
• The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
• EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP/ESI, EZ, Q2 2025/July 2025

In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Retail Sales, Spain, Q2 2025 & June 2025

In one line:  Another big increase in Spanish GDP. 

30 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain still doing better than most and will continue to outperform

• Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1. 
• Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought. 
• The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.

Global Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July 2025

In one line: September cut less certain?

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, July 2025

In one line: September cut less certain?

Global Datanote: ECB Rate decision, July 2025

In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate decision, July 2025

In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, July 2025

In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.

PM Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, July 2025

In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.

PM Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, July 2025

In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Up, but only to a four-month high. 

24 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund spread to fall to 30bp early next year

• Supply and demand analysis on BTPs would suggest a lower yield over the coming years…
•  ...But more accurate spread analysis implies it will fall only slightly from current levels out to 2027. 
• We expect the BTP-Bund spread to fall to 50bp by year-end and to 30bp by Q1 next year.

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q2 2025

In one line: Lending standards still tight while demand for loans is rising. 

23 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB BLS won't move the needle for this week's rates meeting

• Lending standards for firms were left unchanged in Q2, so they remain tight… 
• ...Meanwhile, banks made it harder for households to borrow money, and rejection rates jumped… 
• ...Q2’s bank lending survey is one for ECB doves, but only slightly; it won’t prompt a cut this week.