Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.
In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2.
In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.
In one line: Holding steady at a low level.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
In one line: Stabilisation.
In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix.
- Swiss GDP growth likely slowed sharply in Q2 from the 0.8% q/q read in Q1 led by tariff front-running.
- Hard data and surveys imply a print of around 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Switzerland will enter recession in H2, even if “gold will not be tariffed!”.
- The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal.
- Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it.
- The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.
In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.
In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?
In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.
In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.
In one line: Ugly all round.
In one line: Ugly all round.
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
