Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
- ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
- Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.
- Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
- It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
- The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.
In one line: Inflation has further to fall, but SNB easing is done.
- In one line: Inflation has further to fall, but SNB easing is done.
In one line: Steady near record lows.
- Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
- ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
- In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.
In one line: Q4 will be better.
In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.
In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.
In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.
In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.
- In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.
- In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.
In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
In one line: Worse than we thought; upside risks loom for Q4.
In one line: Drag from net trade in goods disappeared in Q3, as US exports jumped, supporting the confirmed picked up in GDP growth.
