Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, December 2025

In one line: On hold, chances of further easing still slim to none.

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, December 2025

In one line: On hold, chances of further easing still slim to none.

18 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation will edge up before dropping in January

  • EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up. 
  • It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today. 
  • Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, November 2025 & Trade Balance, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4. 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, December 2025

In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4. 

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, December 2025

In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4. 

17 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMI falls but still favours ECB hawks' call for no more easing

  • The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3. 
  • The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market… 
  • ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.

16 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor How have our key indicator forecasts fared this year?

  • Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
  •  …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model. 
  • We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.
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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence