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Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus.Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios.Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices.Recent key calls include:2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May.2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd Compliance Statement

Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd Compliance Statement

Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd Compliance Statement

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

PM Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, October

PM Datanote: Car Registrations, EU 27, October

In one line: Car sales still going downhill. 

Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018

Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018

We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.

About Us

About Us

Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic research to financial market professionals around the world

format testing

format testing

In one line: Permits are the key number, and they are headed back up.

Datanotes

Datanotes

Short, punchy analysis of major economic data, emailed within a few minutes of their release

index

index

Welcome to Pantheon Macroeconomics, leading provider of Independent Macroeconomic Research

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX.Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets.Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist.Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

Other Services

Other Services

Other services from Pantheon.

Melanie Debono

Melanie Debono

Melanie joined Pantheon in 2021 with nearly a decade's experience in independent economic research. She focuses on the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on Italy and Spain, and also covers Switzerland and SNB policy.

Daily Economic Monitor

Daily Economic Monitor

Daily economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia

Gabriella Dickens

Gabriella Dickens

Gabriella joined Pantheon in 2021 weth several years' experience in independent macro research. Prior to joining Pantheon, she was a Global Economist at Capital Economics, with a particular focus on advanced economies; she also worked on a U.K. economy and housing market.

Claus Vistesen

Claus Vistesen

Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.

Products and Services

Products and Services

Our Independent Economic Research is presented in a number of different formats

Chartbook

Chartbook

Monthly publication telling the economic story of each region in roughly 40 charts

Weekly Economic Monitor

Weekly Economic Monitor

Weekly economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

Moorthy Krshnan

Moorthy Krshnan

Moorthy joined Pantheon in 2022 with several years' experience in independent macro research. He focuses on Emerging and North-East Asia.Prior to joining Pantheon, Moorthy worked at Oxford Economics in the Macro-forecasting team, where he covered economics in South and South-East Asia. Moorthy holds undergraduate degrees in Economics from the National University of Singapore and the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill) and a master's degree from the LSE.

U.K. Housing Watch

U.K. Housing Watch

40 illuminating charts, covering all aspects of the market, followed by a detailed forecast page.

Duncan Wrigley

Duncan Wrigley

Duncan produces the China+ Service for Pantheon, covering China, Jana and Korea. He was previously Chief Strategist at Everbright Securities International, with a focus on China economic policy research. Before that he worked as an economist at Shui On Land, a property developer headquartered in Shanghai. The followed positions at the Economist Group, Business Monitor International and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

U.K.

U.K.

U.K. Document Vault

Global

Global

Global Document Vault

China+

China+

China+ Document Vault

U.S.

U.S.

U.S. Document Vault

Eurozone

Eurozone

Eurozone Document Vault

Latin America

Latin America

Latin America Document Vault

Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Document Vault

Careers

Careers

Careers at Pantheon Macroeconomics

Kieran Clancy

Kieran Clancy

Kieran brings several years' experience in independent economic research to Pantheon, where he now works with Ian Shepherdson to deepen our U.S. coverage.

4 Apr 2023 US Monitor The Rebound in Oil Prices is too Small to Threaten the Inflation Story

4 Apr 2023 US Monitor The Rebound in Oil Prices is too Small to Threaten the Inflation Story

The Rebound in Oil Prices is too Small to Threaten the Inflation Story

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, July

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, July

A plunge in manufacturing employment would not be enough to move the needle on headline payrolls.

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, July

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, July

Renewed dip in capital spending intentions is disappointing but not definitive.

7 June 2023 UK Monitor April GDP Likely Fared Worse than the Business Surveys Suggest

7 June 2023 UK Monitor April GDP Likely Fared Worse than the Business Surveys Suggest

April GDP Likely Fared Worse than the Business Surveys Suggest

May 2023 - U.K. Chartbook

May 2023 - U.K. Chartbook

The Nascent Economic Recovery Will Not Gain Much Speed...The MPC Will Raise Bank Rate Further To Suppress Inflation

25 May 2023 US Monitor Support for a June Pause is Evident in the May Minutes, but it's not Done

25 May 2023 US Monitor Support for a June Pause is Evident in the May Minutes, but it's not Done

Support for a June Pause is Evident in the May Minutes, but it's not Done

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, May

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, May

More noise than signal, but still not good.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2023

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2023

Not surprisingly, Indonesia's Q1 comes in at the sacred 5.0% markDoor now wide open for a BSP pause this monthRemoval of mobility restrictions continues to flatter Singaporean retail sales

PM Datanote: Personal Income and Spending March; ECI, Q1

PM Datanote: Personal Income and Spending March; ECI, Q1

The Fed will like core PCE services ex-housing, but not the ECI.

PM Datanote: Consumer Confidence, March

PM Datanote: Consumer Confidence, March

Expectations signal weaker consumption, but not a disaster.

15 August  2023 US Monitor July Retail Sales likely were Soft, but Prime Day Effect is a Wildcard

15 August 2023 US Monitor July Retail Sales likely were Soft, but Prime Day Effect is a Wildcard

July Retail Sales likely were Soft, but Prime Day Effect is a Wildcard

PM Datanote: Q1 Productivity/Weekly Jobless Claims 29 April

PM Datanote: Q1 Productivity/Weekly Jobless Claims 29 April

Grim productivity likely to be temporary; jobless claims have much further to rise

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 April 2023

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 April 2023

Weak commodity prices drag on Malaysian export growth in March

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 September 2023

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 September 2023

Private transport prices slow disinflation in Singapore

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Small Business Survey, August

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Small Business Survey, August

Rise in selling price index is msotly due to higher commodity prices; the downward trend remains intact.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, August

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, August

Increase in prices index is nothing to worry about; downshift in core goods inflation has much further to run.

PM Datanote: PPI, China, July

PM Datanote: PPI, China, July

Producer prices rise m/m, though demand is still soft

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/New Home Sales

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/New Home Sales

People don't like higher gas prices; the trend in new home sales is flattening.

PM Datanote: NFIB Survey, July

PM Datanote: NFIB Survey, July

The selling prices index signals lower core services inflation ex-rents.

25 July 2023 UK Monitor July's PMI Data Indicate that the MPC's Job Is Nearly Done

25 July 2023 UK Monitor July's PMI Data Indicate that the MPC's Job Is Nearly Done

July's PMI Data Indicate that the MPC's Job Is Nearly Done

PM Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, July/Jobless Claims July 15

PM Datanote: Philadelphia Fed, July/Jobless Claims July 15

Philly Fed prices spike is wild; jobless claims likely distorted by seasonal problems

PM Datanote: PPI, China, June

PM Datanote: PPI, China, June

Excess Capacity is Dragging Down China's Producer Prices

8 June 2023 LatAm Monitor Further Gains as Global Risk Sentiment Remains Positive

8 June 2023 LatAm Monitor Further Gains as Global Risk Sentiment Remains Positive

Further Gains as Global Risk Sentiment Remains Positive

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 June 2023

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 June 2023

An unsurprising mean-reversion in ASEAN's PMIIndia's services PMI is consolidating above 60Record high COE prices drag on vehicle sales in Singapore, causing a headline dipIndonesian inflation returns to the upper bound of BI's target range

PM Datanote: New Home Sales, April

PM Datanote: New Home Sales, April

Prices are falling rapidly as homebuilders scramble to reduce inventory overhang.

22 May 2023 China+ Monitor An Uptick in Japanese Inflation is Unlikely to Budge the BoJ

22 May 2023 China+ Monitor An Uptick in Japanese Inflation is Unlikely to Budge the BoJ

An Uptick in Japanese Inflation is Unlikely to Budge the BoJ

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 MAY 2023: Japanese Growth Accelerates

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 MAY 2023: Japanese Growth Accelerates

Japanese GDP beats expectations on the back of stronger consumptionChinese home prices cool, as sales slow

28 July 2023 China+ Monitor China's Industrial Profits are Helped by Softer Commodity Prices

28 July 2023 China+ Monitor China's Industrial Profits are Helped by Softer Commodity Prices

China's Industrial Profits are Helped by Softer Commodity Prices

26 Apr 2023 UK Monitor Pre-Election Tax Cuts will Keep Bank Rate Well Above Neutral in 2024

26 Apr 2023 UK Monitor Pre-Election Tax Cuts will Keep Bank Rate Well Above Neutral in 2024

Pre-Election Tax Cuts will Keep Bank Rate Well Above Neutral in 2024

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 SEPTEMBER 2023

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 SEPTEMBER 2023

Industrial profits decline eases on a year to date basis

22 September 2023 US Monitor If the Fed's Forecasts are Wrong, Which Direction is More Likely?

22 September 2023 US Monitor If the Fed's Forecasts are Wrong, Which Direction is More Likely?

If the Fed's Forecasts are Wrong, Which Direction is More Likely?

12 September 2023 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Industrial Sector Starts H2 on a Relatively Solid Footing

12 September 2023 LatAm Monitor Mexico's Industrial Sector Starts H2 on a Relatively Solid Footing

Mexico's Industrial Sector Starts H2 on a Relatively Solid Footing

8 September 2023 China+ Monitor China's Export Trend Remains Weak, Despite the Headline Moderation

8 September 2023 China+ Monitor China's Export Trend Remains Weak, Despite the Headline Moderation

China's Export Trend Remains Weak, Despite the Headline Moderation

4 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Italy in Recession for the Rest of 2023? Swiss Inflation Holds Steady

4 September 2023 Eurozone Monitor Italy in Recession for the Rest of 2023? Swiss Inflation Holds Steady

Italy in Recession for the Rest of 2023? Swiss Inflation Holds Steady

30 August  2023 US Monitor Labor Market Inflation Risk is Receding Faster than the Fed Thinks

30 August 2023 US Monitor Labor Market Inflation Risk is Receding Faster than the Fed Thinks

Labor Market Inflation Risk is Receding Faster than the Fed Thinks

25 May 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor The State Bank of Vietnam has Now Reversed Half of Last Year's Hikes

25 May 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor The State Bank of Vietnam has Now Reversed Half of Last Year's Hikes

The State Bank of Vietnam has Now Reversed Half of Last Year's Hikes

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 May 2023

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 May 2023

Indonesian retail sales gets a lift from this year's earlier RamadanStrong consumer demand should help boost Malaysia's Q1 GDP growth

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, March

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, March

So much for the red-hot start to the year...

 

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