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Samuel Tombs
Samuel Tombs has won multiple awards for his UK forecasts. He had the highest average forecast score in Bloomberg's 2021 panel
Miguel Chanco
Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.
About Us
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic research to financial market professionals around the world
Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018
We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.
Robert Wood
Rob Wood topped the Sunday Times annual ranking of forecasters for the UK economy in 2020, and has earned plaudits for his forecasting
Datanotes
Short, punchy analysis of major economic data, emailed within a few minutes of their release
Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.
Andres Abadia
Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX.Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets.Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist.Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Duncan Wrigley
Duncan produces the China+ Service for Pantheon, covering China, Japan and Korea. He was previously Chief Strategist at Everbright Securities International.
Melanie Debono
Melanie joined Pantheon in 2021 with nearly a decade's experience in independent economic research. She focuses on the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on Italy and Spain, and also covers Switzerland and SNB policy.
Products and Services
Our Independent Economic Research is presented in a number of different formats
Pantheon Macroeconomics U.S. Economy Discussion with Ian Shepherdson
CFA Sweden hosting Pantheon Macroeconomics
Weekly Economic Monitor
Weekly economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia
Moorthy Krshnan
Moorthy joined Pantheon in 2022 with several years' experience in independent macro research. He focuses on Emerging and North-East Asia.Prior to joining Pantheon, Moorthy worked at Oxford Economics in the Macro-forecasting team, where he covered economics in South and South-East Asia. Moorthy holds undergraduate degrees in Economics from the National University of Singapore and the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill) and a master's degree from the LSE.
Kelvin Lam
Kelvin Lam has spent a decade and a half working in financial institutions in London and Hong Kong, focusing on macroeconomic research.
UK Housing Watch
40 illuminating charts, covering all aspects of the market, followed by a detailed forecast page.
Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan Loynes is an experienced macro-economist who spent 18 years at economic consultancy Capital Economics, latterly as Chief Economist.
Oliver Allen
Oliver joined Pantheon in January 2024 to focus on the U.S. economy. Oliver brings several years' experience in independent macro research
November 2023 - U.K. Chartbook
LARGE FISCAL SQUEEZE STILL PLANNED FOR 2024......INFLATION WILL FALL FURTHER, TEEING UP A MAY RATE CUT
PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, April, 2024
In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly, leaving the door open to further rate cuts.
UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q3 2023
In one line: The trend in GDP was flat in 2023; expect a material improvement in 2024.
UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2023
In one line: Consistent with a modest revival in retail sales; expect a fuller recovery in 2024.
EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, November 2023
In one line: We still expect consumption to stagnate in Q4.
UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October
In one line: We expect a recovery in the coming months, driven by a rebound in real incomes.
PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October
Most of the October weakness reflects the UAW strike; expect a November rebound.
Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2024
In one line: Near-term momentum in services price rises is slowing, bolstering Q2 rate cut chances.
China+ Datanote: MLF rate, China, March
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.
UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2024
In one line: Mortgage rate falls do the trick.
UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, February 2024
In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into housebuilding.
Global Datanote: ECB Press Conference, March 2024
In one line: See you in June, for the first rate cut.
EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q4 2023
In one line: GDP went nowhere last year; slowing wage growth supports June ECB rate cut.
UK Datanote: Construction PMI, March 2024
In one line: Expected interest rate cuts prove to be an effective tonic for construction.
EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2024
In one line: The SNB beats the ECB to the punch on rate cuts.
Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2024
In one line: The SNB beats the ECB to the punch on rate cuts.
26 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?
How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?
UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2024
In one line: Near-term momentum in services price rises is slowing, bolstering Q2 rate cut chances.
CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 April 2024: MLF rate unchanged
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth
China+ Datanote: MLF Rate, China, April
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth
CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JANUARY 2024: The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold
PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, December, 2023
In one line: A poor end to the quarter, highlighting the need of further rate cuts.
Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, January, 2024
In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as widely expected.
PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, January, 2024
In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as widely expected.
2 May 2024 LatAm Monitor The Fed's Cautious Approach Raises Concerns
The Fed's Cautious Approach Raises Concerns
Global Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, January, 2023
In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, January, 2023
In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Global Datanote: U.K. MPC Meeting & Minutes, December
In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.
UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December
In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.
Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, 2023
In one line: Core inflation continues to fall.
PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, December, 2023
In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as expected.
PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, October
The (almost) final nail in the coffin of the Fed's rate hike optionality
UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, September/October 2023
In one line: Much slower wage growth is increasing the chances of a rate cut in H1 2024.
CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26 April 2024: BoJ holds steady
The BoJ holds the policy rate steady; Tokyo consumer inflation cools, thanks to education subsidies
PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, March, 2024
In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, February 2024
In one line: Hit by a fall in the goods surplus; portfolio inflows remain robust.
EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, January 2024
In one line: The sticky core will come undone soon; we look for a big fall in February
EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, December 2023
In one line: All due to base effects; how far will inflation fall in January?
EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, September 2023
In one line: Not enough to prevent a quarterly fall in Q3 overall.
