7 Jan 2022 December Payroll Risk is to the Upside, did Participation Rise Again

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jan 2022 00:20U.S., Daily Monitor

The risk to December payrolls is decidedly to the up- side; we look for 850K, against the 444K consensus.
A further rise in participation would be hugely significant, signalling an easing of excess labor demand.
The ISM services survey suggests that supply-chain pressures are easing, but they remain intense.

adp ahe asset businesses cash chair powell core core pce core pce inflation demand easing employment forecast growth index inflation inflation target investors ism it labor labor market leave market payroll payrolls pce pce inflation powell prices private payrolls productivity productivity growth remain report retail services supply supply chain survey unemployment wage wage growth wages

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