Pantheon Macroeconomics

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7th Apr 2022 00:20U.S., Daily Monitor

Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.

The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.

The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.

core inflation debt ceiling debt service employment fed FOMC minutes government inflation pressures interest rate June labor March May recession recessions savings treasuries u.s. wage pressures yield curve yields

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Keywords for: A 2/10 Inversion is not a Reliable Signal of Impending Recession

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