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3rd Jul 2025 15:32USWeekly Monitor

  • June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
  • Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
  • The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.

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Keywords for: 7 July 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence