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1st Feb 2024 20:37US, Weekly Monitor

  • Whatever really happened to payrolls in January, leading indicators point to much slower gains in Q2.
  • The spike in hourly earnings likely reflects the mis-measurement of hours, not a rebound in the trend.
  • The January data have killed any chance of a March Fed easing, but we still expect the first cut in May.

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Keywords for: 5 February 2024 US Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence