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4th Aug 2025 10:49USDaily Monitor

  • The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
  • Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
  • The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.

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Keywords for: 5 August 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence