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1st Jul 2025 09:42USDaily Monitor

  • The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
  • But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown. 
  • The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession

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Keywords for: 3 July 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence