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19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Sep 2022 14:28U.S., Weekly Monitor

Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

August auto sector bea bloomberg disinflation economy exports fed forecasters forecasts foreign trade gdp gdp forecast gdp growth gdp report growth import numbers imports income index inflation inventories July labor labor market margin compression mortgage mortgage applications nahb index net foreign trade October oil oil prices private sector profits q2 q3 q3 gdp remain sentiment September survey trade trade data u.s. wage gains

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