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A significant recovery seems unlikely in the near term.
Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.
Net trade and equipment investment both set to drag on Q2 growth.
New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
Better headline numbers, but the underlying trend is still weak.
The drop in sales is probably noise, but the underlying trend is weak.
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