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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.
The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.
Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.
In one line: Seasonal issues likely depressed orders; claims back to pre-Omicron level
In one line: Core orders likely constrained by Omicron; trends rising. Claims still high but likely have peaked.
In one line: Claims hit by Omicron; near-term outlook uncertain
In one line: Core PPI inflation has peaked; claims hit by seasonal problems.
The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.
We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.
The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.
In one line: Strong starts more important than Philly dip.
The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.
Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.
The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.
The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.
The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.
Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.
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