Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

weekly jobless claims

8 Apr 2022 Low and Falling Confidence is no Barrier to Strong Consumption

Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.

The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.

Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Mar 2022 Everything Except ADP Points to a Soft March Payroll Report

  • We're sticking to our zero payroll forecast; Homebase and other data contradict ADP.
  • A rebound in February spending on services seems to have been offset by a drop in spending on goods. 
  • Core PCE inflation likely rose, but the February reading could be the peak; Q2 will see a clear downshift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Mar 2022 ADP Likely will Report Solid March Jobs, but Payrolls will be Weaker

  • We expect a solid ADP print today, but it will have no bearing on our forecast for the official jobs number…
  • …The Homebase data point clearly to substantial downside risk to the consensus payroll forecast.
  • Housing activity is set to weaken further as mortgage rates head towards 5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, February/Weekly Jobless Claims

In one line: Seasonal issues likely depressed orders; claims back to pre-Omicron level

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Mar 2022 The Fed is on Course to Start Tightening, but will be "Nimble"

  • Chair Powell sticks to the tightening story, while ac-knowledging uncertainty due to the Ukraine war.
  • The unwinding of the Omicron hit should mean lower claims and stronger ISM services today.
  • The auto sales rebound is stalling, but Q1 sales still on course to rise by more than 40%, annualized.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Feb 2022 Base Effects will Lift January Inflation, Monthly Run-Rate has Peaked

  • An Omicron hit to airline fares and lodging costs sug- gests modest downside risk to January's core CPI.
  • Reweighting will not materially change the path of core inflation; fundamentals are what matter.
  • Vehicle prices are the most likely driver of downside inflation surprises in the spring and summer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Feb 2022 Productivity Noise is Drowning the Signal, but the Outlook is Good

  • Productivity growth rebounded in Q4, but the more important point is that the outlook is very bright...
  • ...Stronger productivity growth over the medium-term would boost real incomes and corporate earnings.
  • The Omicron hit means downside risk to today's ISM services index; expect better in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Claims/Durable Goods, December

In one line: Core orders likely constrained by Omicron; trends rising. Claims still high but likely have peaked.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, December/Weekly Jobless Claims

In one line: Core PPI inflation has peaked; claims hit by seasonal problems.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence