28 Oct 2022 US Monitor Final Demand is Struggling, but Recession is not Inevitable

• Q3 GDP growth flattered to deceive; domestic final demand barely rose.
• The Q3 ECI should offer a bit of hope on the wages front, but the numbers are hard to forecast.
• One monthly drop in core capex orders proves nothing, but weaker business surveys are ominous. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Oct 2022 US Monitor More of the Same in the Jobs Data, but the Next Wages Print is Key

• Markets overreacted to an insignificant dip in unem- ployment because the Fed overreacts to the data too.
• The slowing in job growth has been very gradual in recent months, but friendly seasonals can’t last.
• The slowing in wage gains still looks more like a sta- tistical quirk than a trend, but October data are key.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

• Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
• ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
• But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2022 US Monitor Monthly CPI rent increases likely have peaked

• CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
• Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
• Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Sept 2022 US Monitor Labor Market Uncertainties Abound, but the Big Picture is Still Strong

• Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
• Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
• The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

• The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
• Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
• The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2022 US Monitor ADP is Back Today, but no Details on the New Method have been Released

• The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
• The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
• Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2022 US Monitor Home Prices are Falling, Take no Comfort from the Case-Shiller Data

Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.