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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward... ...But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage...
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
Covid-Sensitive Components Drove the April CPI, What Next
April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why
April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming
What's Driving ECI Wages, Technicalities, or Real Pressures
The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear
The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...
The Labor Market for Small Businesses has Tightened Sharply
1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields
24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties
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