Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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wages

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 July 2021 Brace for Another Outsized Jump in Employment Costs

Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…

…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.

Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2021 Labor Supply Constrained Until the Fall; the Fed will be Content to Wait

We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from
the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local government sector, while the increase in June private sector payrolls was not statistically significantly bigger than in May.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night. The 559K increase in payrolls was welcome, and it marked a clear improvement on April's revised 278K gain, but it left the economy still 7.6M jobs down from the pre-Covid level, and nearly 11M short of the level we would have expected if the pandemic hadn't happened.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 May 2021 Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)

Why should we care about inflation expectations? After all, we don't care much about what people think about other aspects of the economy, because they tend to respond to events which have already happened, like prior movements in stock prices, gas prices, elections, and interest rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2021 One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

A year or so from now, if the economy is beset by stubbornly high inflation, and the Fed is hammering asset prices by aggressively tightening policy in order to stem a further upward twist of the spiral, it's a fair bet that we'll look back to last week's data and say: "That's when they should have thrown up their hands, admitted they underestimated the inflation pressures triggered by unprecedented policy easing, and signaled a shift in policy."

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2021 Covid-Sensitive Components Drove the April CPI, What Next

In order to transition from low Covid-induced inflation to the sustained increases needed to persuade the Fed to tighten policy—remember, they have vowed to react to inflation data, not forecasts—three things have to happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May 2021 April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why

Let's start the post-mortem with what we know: The disappointing April payroll numbers were not depressed by a lack of labor demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 May 2021 April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming

We're expecting to see a headline April payroll print of 1,100K today, following the 742K ADP number reported Wednesday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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