- Q3 GDP growth flattered to deceive; domestic final demand barely rose.
- The Q3 ECI should offer a bit of hope on the wages front, but the numbers are hard to forecast.
- One monthly drop in core capex orders proves nothing, but weaker business surveys are ominous.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Markets overreacted to an insignificant dip in unem- ployment because the Fed overreacts to the data too.
- The slowing in job growth has been very gradual in recent months, but friendly seasonals can’t last.
- The slowing in wage gains still looks more like a sta- tistical quirk than a trend, but October data are key.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
- ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
- But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
- Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
- Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
- Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
- The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
- Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
- The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
- The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
- Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.