Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

wage growth

17 May 2022 Homebase Data Suggest May Payrolls Rose by About 250K

The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.

Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.

Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2022 The Dip in April PPI Margins is a Hint of Better Inflation News Ahead

Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.

Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.

Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, April

Payrolls strong but moderating; more evidence of slowing wage gains

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 May 2022 Payroll Gains Likely Moderated in April, a War Hit or a Slowing Trend

We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...

...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.

AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2022 Another 50bp Hike Likely in June, but then Bets are Off as Inflation Falls

Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…

…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.

First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 May 2022 It's too Soon for Chair Powell to Sound Less Hawkish

The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...

...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.

Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2022 Manufacturing is Set to Slow, but it is an Unreliable Guide to GDP Growth

The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.

Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.

The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Apr 2022 Economic Growth will Rebound in Q2, the Fundamentals are Solid

The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.

Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.

A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Apr 2022 The Inventory Rebuild is Driving up the Trade Deficit as Imports Rocket

 The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.

Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.

Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Apr 2022 Inflation Peak Arrives; the Downshift Could be Disorientingly Fast

Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.

The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.

The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Apr 2022 Will High Rent Inflation be Offset by Retail Margin Compression?

High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…

…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.

Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Apr 2022 Low and Falling Confidence is no Barrier to Strong Consumption

Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.

The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.

Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Apr 2022 A 2/10 Inversion is not a Reliable Signal of Impending Recession

Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.

The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.

The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Apr 2022 FOMC Minutes Likely to Show Heightened Inflation Fears

The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.

Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.

The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Apr 2022 Payroll Growth is Slowing, but it's Still Solid; Wage Gains Moderating?

  • Payroll Growth is still Strong and broad, but the trend likely will moderate as previous peaks draw nearer
  • Participation continues to increase, suggesting that the period of peak supply/demand imbalance is over.
  • Wage growth looks to be moderating, but a 3.6% unemployment print signals a 50bp hike next month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment

In one line: Payrolls might be moderating; wage gaind have slowed markedly

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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