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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...
22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
15th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
9th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
7th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
21st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
14th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
11th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...
8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
7th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
1st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
28th May 2021 00:20U.S.
Markets and the Fed will React Differently if May Payrolls Rebound
26th May 2021 00:20U.S.
Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)
24th May 2021 00:30U.S.
Some FOMC Members Want to Talk Tapering; The Leadership Does Not
20th May 2021 00:20U.S.
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
17th May 2021 00:30U.S.
Covid-Sensitive Components Drove the April CPI, What Next
13th May 2021 00:20U.S.
An Array of Core CPI Components Look Set to Rise in April
12th May 2021 00:20U.S.
Small Firms' Sentiment is Improving, Inflation Pressures Rising
11th May 2021 00:30U.S.
April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why
10th May 2021 00:30U.S.
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