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Core CPI inflation looks set to power past 5% by the year-end as used car prices and airline fares rebound.
The peak will come early next year, but the rate will remain elevated for most of the year.
If unit labor costs remain controlled, the "transitory" story is sustainable, but expect pressure on the Fed.
The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.
The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.
People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture.
Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008 disaster.
New home sales are now almost in line with mortgage demand, but price gains are set to slow very sharply
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
It would not be fair, yet, to describe the industrial recovery as faltering, though you could be forgiven for looking at the recent path of core durable goods orders and wondering.
The housing boom story is the media and market narrative which just won't die, despite a four-month plunge in mortgage demand, falling home sales, and softening construction activity.
In order to transition from low Covid-induced inflation to the sustained increases needed to persuade the Fed to tighten policy—remember, they have vowed to react to inflation data, not forecasts—three things have to happen.
It was easy for inflation doves to dismiss the 0.34% jump in the March core CPI as merely a correction, after three straight small increases, averaging just 0.06%.
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