Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

vehicles

14 June 2022 Margin Re-Compression is Key to Lower Inflation, Progress in the PPI

Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.

PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.

Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 May 2022 The Extent of the Housing Rollover Finally is Laid Bare

The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.

Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?

April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Apr 2022 Upside Risk--but Lots of Noise--for March Retail Sales

Mobility data signal upside risk to March core retail sales; the headline will be boosted by gas prices.

Real consumption appears to be on course for a solid 4% increase; spending on services is rebounding too. 

Core PPI inflation probably has peaked, but the downshift will be slower than for the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2022 One Better Month is not a Trend, but the March CPI Offers Real Hope

Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.

Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.

Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Apr 2022 Inflation Peak Arrives; the Downshift Could be Disorientingly Fast

Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.

The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.

The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Apr 2022 Will High Rent Inflation be Offset by Retail Margin Compression?

High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…

…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.

Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Mar 2022 Homebase Data Signal Weak March Payrolls, Despite Recent Strength

  • Our interpretation of the Homebase data suggests payroll growth stalled in March…
  • …This might be nothing more than a blip, or Homebase could be wrong; but it's not what we expected.
  • Auction data show the drop in used vehicle prices is accelerating; downside risk for existing home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Mar 2022 Energy is Driving Headline PPI, but the Core Rate will Soon Fall Rapidly

  • The February PPI likely was boosted by soaring energy and food prices, but the March hit will be bigger.
  • Core PPI inflation likely peaked in February; it looks set to fall sharply from the spring onwards.
  • Base effects will hugely depress year-over-year chainstore sales growth over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Mar 2022 Headline Inflation set for a New High, but the Core Should be Less Terrible

  • Headline inflation likely hit a 40-year high in February, but the monthly core increases likely have peaked.
  • Lower used vehicle prices and airline fares probably limited the core increase in February.
  • JOLTS job openings remain close to their record high, despite rising labor participation rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Feb 2022. U.S. Macro Implications of the Ukraine War Remain Modest

  • Key U.S. market metrics are now marginally better than immediately before Russia invaded Ukraine... 
  • ...Oil prices, particular, priced-in the invasion, so retail gas prices will now stabilize. 
  • First quarter GDP growth looks set to be lower than we hoped, thanks to continued auto supply problems. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Feb 2022 Expect a Big Jump in Headline January Retail Sales; Core is Wild

  • A gratifyingly huge leap in auto sales likely will flatter today's headline January retail sales...
  • The core will be mixed, but we hope falling restaurant sales were offset by gains elsewhere.
  • A weather-driven leap in utility output likely will hide soft January manufacturing data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Feb 2022 Inflation is Approaching its Peak, but it's not Quite there Yet

  • No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
  • The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
  • ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Feb 2022 Base Effects will Lift January Inflation, Monthly Run-Rate has Peaked

  • An Omicron hit to airline fares and lodging costs sug- gests modest downside risk to January's core CPI.
  • Reweighting will not materially change the path of core inflation; fundamentals are what matter.
  • Vehicle prices are the most likely driver of downside inflation surprises in the spring and summer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Jan 2022 A March Hike but no Balance Sheet Decisions yet, all Options Open

  • Rates will rise in March, but Powell suggests no bal- ance sheet run-off announcement until May...
  • ...Even May is not certain, given the likelihood of a run of very weak activity data between now and then.
  • Q4 GDP growth enjoyed a last-minute boost from surging December inventories, upside risk today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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