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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...
...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.
The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.
Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.
PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.
Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.
The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.
Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?
April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.
Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...
...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.
The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.
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