Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

vehicle sales

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December

In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Jan 2022 Omicron is Hurting, but the Pain Should Start to Ease in February

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2022 While we were Out... Omicron Cases Rocketed, but not for Much Longer

  • Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
  • The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
  • The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Dec 2021 While We're Out, Omicron Cases will Rocket, but don't Worry, Much

  • Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
  • ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
  • Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Dec 2021 Omicron Cases Soaring, but Hospitalizations to be Contained?

  • U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
  • Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
  • Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Nov 2021 Net Foreign Trade is Set to Augment Strong Domestic Demand in Q4

  • Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
  • ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
  • The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income/New Home Sales, October

  • In one line: Spending rebounding; inflation yet to peak; dip in home sales is temporary.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Nov 2021 Powell Stays in the Saddle, Tapering Unlikely to Accelerate in December

  • Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
  • ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
  • Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S.Existing Home Sales, October

  • In one line: The re-rebound continues, and low inventory means prices are still soaring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Nov 2021 Covid Cases set to Rise Further, but they won't Wreck the Economy

  • Covid cases are rising in states with low vax rates, waning vax efficacy, and low prior infections...
  • ...Colder weather likely is boosting infections in the northern half of the country; expect NE cases to soar.
  • New treatment and vaccine protection against severe disease will keep hospitalizations and deaths down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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