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The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
Homebase employment data point to downside risk against consensus for July payrolls…
…But the problem remains lack of supply, not lack of demand; expect things to change in the fall
Look for unemployment to dip, and another solid increase in average hourly earnings.
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
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