Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

unemployment rate

31 Oct 2022 US Monitor How the Fed Could be Done After the December Rate Hike

  • If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
  • Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
  • The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Oct 2022 US Monitor Payroll Growth Likely Slowed a Bit in September, but Upside AHE Risk

  • The Homebase employment data suggest Septem- ber payrolls rose by about 300K.
  • The unwinding of August’s calendar quirk signals upside risk for average hourly earnings.
  • Job growth is strong enough to push unemployment down, but it is being offset by rising participation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Oct 2022 US Monitor Can Wage Inflation Slow Without a Steep Rise in Unemployment

  • Significantly higher unemployment might not be needed to depress wage growth...
  • ...Plunging inflation expectations could do the job, by depressing wage demands.
  • Manufacturing supply problems continue to ease, increasing the downward pressure on margin inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2022 US Monitor No Let-up in the Fed's Hawkishness, but Opinions are Split

  • Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
  • Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
  • The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Unemployment Claims

Manufacturing stabilising; downward pressure on margins increasing; dip in claims is seasonal fluke

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Sept 2022 US Monitor Labor Market Uncertainties Abound, but the Big Picture is Still Strong

  • Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
  • Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
  • The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence