Pantheon Macroeconomics

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24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties

24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Feb 2021 19:20U.S.

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 08:32U.S.

25 Jan 2021 Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

20 Jan 2021 Don't Worry About the Dip in Savings Balances, They're Still Huge

Don't Worry About the Dip in Savings Balances, They're Still Huge

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

21 Dec 2020 A Bill Beats No Bill, but it Could have been so Much Better

Any Covid relief bill is better than no Covid relief bill, but the measures set to be passed by Congress after our Sunday deadline do not represent the most efficient use of the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

18 Dec 2020 A Post-Covid Jump in Inflation Might be "Transient", but it Might Not

Fed Chair Powell argued in his press conference Wednesday that any increase in inflation when the economy re-opens likely will be short-lived.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

17 Dec 2020 Opportunity Missed as the FOMC Leaves QE Unchanged

The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, by choosing not to increase the weighted average maturity--WAM--of its Treasury purchases.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

14 Dec 2020 Soaring Margins Could Drive Inflation if Demand Explodes Post-Covid

The conventional way to model U.S. inflation a year or two ahead is to start with a projection for the rate of increase of unit labor costs, and then tweak it to account for...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

7 Dec 2020 No Relief in Sight for the Labor Market

We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

1 Dec 2020 Help is Needed for the Unemployed, but the Employed Drive Growth

While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Oct 2020 21:50U.S.

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