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We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear
M2 Growth will Slow this Year, but it will Exceed 10%; Should You Ca
Would Higher Inflation Upset the Stronger Dollar Story
The Fed will Stick to its Guns Today, no Changes to QE, and no Taper
8 Mar 2021 February Payrolls are Just a Taste of Much Bigger Gains to Come, Soon
1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields
Upside Risk for the January Core PCE, but it's Noise, not Signal
The Recovery in Core Durable Goods Orders is Complete
23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk
No Labor Market Recovery Until Covid is Routed, but it's Coming
The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, by choosing not to increase the weighted average maturity--WAM--of its Treasury purchases.
We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.
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