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We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in oil prices will materially slow the rate of U.S. economic growth.
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only questions are when, and at what pace.
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.
President Biden's $1.8T American Families Plan, together with the $2.3T infrastructure plan, and the $1.9T Covid relief bill, amount to nothing less than attempt to push the United States towards a European-style social democratic model.
We have said this before and we'll say it again: We are not monetarists.
If you own U.S. government debt, you're going to get paid.
The FOMC will revise up its growth forecasts today, in light of the sustained drop in Covid cases and hospitalizations, which is triggering a gradual reopening of the services sector, and the passage of the American Rescue Act, which will pump $1.9T into the economy.
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