Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

treasury

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Aug 2021 U.S. Covid Cases Set to Peak Soon, Delta Waves are Brutal but Short

  • Delta waves are brutal but relatively short; U.S. daily Covid cases should peak by the end of August.
  • The interruption to the economic recovery should not last beyond September; behavior will lag the data.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

  • FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
  • The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
  • Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in oil prices will materially slow the rate of U.S. economic growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 July 2021 Upside Risk for June Payrolls, Home base Data Point to 1M Private Jobs

Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2021 What are the Chances of a 1M Payroll Print for June

The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2021 Inflation is Unpredictable; Be Open-Minded

First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only questions are when, and at what pace. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Apr 2021 The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear

President Biden's $1.8T American Families Plan, together with the $2.3T infrastructure plan, and the $1.9T Covid relief bill, amount to nothing less than attempt to push the United States towards a European-style social democratic model. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Mar 2021 The Fed will Stick to its Guns Today, no Changes to QE, and no Taper Talk

The FOMC will revise up its growth forecasts today, in light of the sustained drop in Covid cases and hospitalizations, which is triggering a gradual reopening of the services sector, and the passage of the American Rescue Act, which will pump $1.9T into the economy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence