Pantheon Macroeconomics

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treasury

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Feb 2021 18:30U.S.

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 07:32U.S.

17 Dec 2020 Opportunity Missed as the FOMC Leaves QE Unchanged

The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, by choosing not to increase the weighted average maturity--WAM--of its Treasury purchases.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Dec 2020 16:20U.S.

7 Dec 2020 No Relief in Sight for the Labor Market

We were not surprised by the soft November employment numbers, unfortunately, because job growth was close to the pace implied by the Homebase small business employment data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Dec 2020 18:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 18:20U.S.

23 Nov 2020 Increased QE More Likely After the Treasury Kills Fed Lending Programs

The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Nov 2020 18:20U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Nov 2020 18:10U.S.

7 Oct 2020 Stable Covid Numbers Alone won't Rescue the Economy

The daily number of confirmed new U.S. Covid-19 cases has leveled-off over the past couple weeks, and the rate of increase of hospitalizations has slowed appreciably.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.

28 Sept 2020 36 Days to Go, Who will Win, and What will they Do?

First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

21 Sept 2020 Why won't the Fed Offer Outcome-based Guidance for its QE Program?

The Fed has given itself and markets clear guidance on the minimum requirements for a rate hike-- maximum employment, and inflation at 2% and on track "moderately"...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Sep 2020 19:20U.S.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jul 2020 19:10U.S.

29 July 2020 No Big Changes from the Fed Today, but Enhanced Guidance is Coming

We argued in the Monitor on Friday--see here--that the Fed likely will increase the pace of its Treasury purchases, in order to ensure that the wave of supply needed to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

24 July 2020 Will the Fed Step-up the Pace of QE as Issuance Surges Again

If Congress passes another Covid relief bill early next month, as we fully expect, it will have to be financed quickly via increased debt issuance.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

8 July 2020 Watch Bank Lending, a Sustained Drop Would Trigger More QE

The stock of bank lending to businesses is on course to fall in June, after a modest increase in May and huge jumps in March and April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

2 July 2020 Another Increase in Payrolls is a Good Bet, but Anything Can Happen

ADP's measure of May private payrolls undershot the official estimate by 5.6 million, surprising everyone after it nailed the April catastrophe.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

11 June 2020 The Fed isn't Thinking About Thinking About Hiking, Why Would They

The Fed announced no significant policy changes yesterday, but the FOMC reinforced its commitment to maintain "smooth market functioning", by promising to keep its...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Jun 2020 19:10U.S.

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