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We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
M2 Growth will Slow this Year, but it will Exceed 10%; Should You Ca
Deeply Embedded Low Inflation Psychology didn't End Well in the 60s
Upside Risk for the February Core CPI, are Rents Starting to Rebound
1 Mar 2021. Stocks don't Need to Keep Falling on the Back of Higher Yields
If $1.9T Turns Out to be too Much, the Fed will have to Step In
In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...
The conventional way to model U.S. inflation a year or two ahead is to start with a projection for the rate of increase of unit labor costs, and then tweak it to account for...
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