PM Datanote: Durable Goods Orders/Advance Goods Trade, April

Jump in core capital goods orders looks unsustainable; widening of trade deficit adds to recession woes.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Durable Goods Orders/Advance Trade, March

Bigger falls in core capital goods orders are coming; net trade was broadly neutral in Q1.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, February

Net trade will have little impact on Q1 GDP.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, January

Net trade will have a much smaller impact on GDP growth this year than in 2022.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders/Advance Goods Trade, December

Falling core goods orders bad news for manufacturing; big swings in trade deficit less likely in 2023

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, October

Net trade to be a drag on GDP growth in Q4

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

30 Nov 2022 US Monitor ADP is not Reliable; We're Sticking to our 250K Payroll Forecast

 ADP’s employment measure is unreliable; we will be sticking to our 250K payroll forecast.

Job openings are trending downwards but not collapsing; wage growth is slowing more quickly.

The October trade deficit likely fell slightly, but the big correction in imports is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.