PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, January

The risk of a March 50bp hike has gone up, but it would be a mistake

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December

January spending will rebound, but Q1 will be weak overall; core inflation is falling.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, November

Solid Q3 spending unlikely to persist, but disinflation will

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, October/Weekly Jobless Claims

Q4 consumption set for 3%-plus, but trouble brewing ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Nov 2022 US Monitor Capex Outperformed in Q3, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

• Business capital spending performed surprisingly well in Q3, but the outlook is deteriorating rapidly.
• Brace for a potential upside shock in today’s job claims numbers; the trend is turning.
• New home sales cannot fall forever but the near-term downside risk is clear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Nov 2022 US Monitor Debt Ceiling, Government Spending Path are Contingent on Elections

• Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
• The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
• Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, August

Core deflator is bad, but not as bad as it looks

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risks for August Housing Starts, but don't be Deceived

• Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
• Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
• Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

• Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
• The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
• The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.