Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

total ordersBalance of Payments

25 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure and Social Spending Bills will Pass, Eventually

We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.

Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.

New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2021 July's Retail Sales Likely Escaped the Delta Hit, August is at Risk

July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...

...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.

Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2021 Is Benefit Curtailment Pushing People Back to Work

Emerging evidence from the Homebase employment data suggests that the ending of federally-financed enhanced unemployment benefits in many states has not clearly pushed people back into the labor force, yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 May 2021 Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data

The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Apr 2021 Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Today brings a huge wave of macro data, most of which will be very strong, though the gains we expect to see in March retail sales and industrial production can't be sustained. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Mar 2021 Is the Stimulus Bill Driving up Manufacturing Sentiment

It's entirely reasonable to think that business owners and managers were happy to see the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law by President Biden on March 11. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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