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In one line: The underlying core trend remains solid.
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...
A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
Emerging evidence from the Homebase employment data suggests that the ending of federally-financed enhanced unemployment benefits in many states has not clearly pushed people back...
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...
With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims 5 27 2021
Manufacturing is Still Recovering, but Momentum has Eased
Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data
Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way
In one line: Headline hit by Boeing; core constrained by early Easter? Trends solid.
Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2
Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores
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