Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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28 Sept 2020 36 Days to Go, Who will Win, and What will they Do?

First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

5 Mar 2020 ADP Likely Overstates February Payrolls, but Everything will Change

The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Mar 2020 19:10U.S.

4 Mar 2020 More to Come from the Fed, but Fiscal Policy has to Step Up too

We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

14 Feb 2020 Upticks in Smaller CPI Components and Rent Healthcare Pose Threats

The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

13 Feb 2020 Core CPI Likely Back on Trend, Risks in Rent and Healthcare Persist

The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.

12 Feb 2020 Powell Sticks to the Line, Current Policy is "Appropriate"

Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.

5 Feb 2020 ADP Likely to Report Strong Job Growth in January

Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Feb 2020 19:20U.S.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Jan 2020 19:15U.S.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully"

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

28 Jan 2020 Plummeting Boeing Orders Mean Downside Risk for Durable Goods

Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

23 Jan 2020 Leading Indicators are being Hit by the Trade War: Ignore, for Now

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators appears to signal that the U.S. economy is plunging headlong into recession.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jan 2020 20:00U.S.

22 Jan 2020 Existing Home Sales to Rise in H1, Whatever Happened in December

The weather-driven surge in December housing starts, reported last week, is unlikely to be replicated in today's existing home sales numbers for the same month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

21 Jan 2020 The Drop in Job Openings is Old News, Hard Data are Outperforming

Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.

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