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First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...
27th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.
A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other...
8th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.
5th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.
4th Mar 2020 19:10U.S.
We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
3rd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.
1st Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.
13th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.
The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.
12th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.
Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is...
11th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.
Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.
5th Feb 2020 19:10U.S.
Our composite index of employment indicators, based on survey data and the official JOLTS report, looks ahead about three months.
4th Feb 2020 19:20U.S.
The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.
3rd Feb 2020 19:20U.S.
The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.
2nd Feb 2020 19:20U.S.
It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.
30th Jan 2020 19:15U.S.
Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.
29th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.
The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.
28th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.
Core durable goods orders in recent months have been much less terrible than implied by both the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys.
27th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.
The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators appears to signal that the U.S. economy is plunging headlong into recession.
22nd Jan 2020 20:00U.S.
The weather-driven surge in December housing starts, reported last week, is unlikely to be replicated in today's existing home sales numbers for the same month.
21st Jan 2020 19:20U.S.
Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's...
20th Jan 2020 19:20U.S.
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