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July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...
...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.
Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first chart, that the reopening has triggered a big spike in prices—mostly across the Covid-hit services sector—it's no longer a forecast.
The FOMC minutes from April mostly are old news, in the wake of the latest payroll and CPI reports, released after the meeting, but they do serve to emphasize how strongly most Fed members are committed to the idea that policy can remain loose until the evidence clearly points to sustained upward pressure on inflation.
It was easy for inflation doves to dismiss the 0.34% jump in the March core CPI as merely a correction, after three straight small increases, averaging just 0.06%.
We can't be as bullish about today's April ADP employment report as we had hoped in the wake of the continued reopening of the economy over the past month.
It's possible that the surge in wages reported in the first quarter employment costs index will prove benign.
How many times today will Chair Powell refer to a post-Covid increase in inflation as likely to be "transitory" or "transient"?
It's tempting to look at our first chart and think that the recovery in capex is hitting a wall.
Something remarkable is happening to auction prices for used cars, which jumped 9.1% in mid-April, according to data from Manheim, the biggest auction firm. That's not the year-over-year rate; it's the increase between March and the middle of this month.
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