Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

surveys

22 Nov 2022 US Monitor Layoffs are set to Rise, Pointing to Slower Payroll Growth Next Year

  • Layoff announcements are not a reliable guide to jobless claims in the short term...
  • ...But we cannot ignore the upward trend in recent months; claims likely will follow.
  • Regional Fed surveys point to a sharp slowdown in capital spending, but it is not in the hard data yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Nov 2022 US Monitor Payroll Growth Likely Slowed in October, and Watch AHE too

  • We look for a 175K increase in October payrolls, but the margin of error is large at inflexion points...
  • ...Employment measures in most business surveys have weakened, but they remain quite strong.
  • Look out for a third straight soft hourly earnings print; that would start to look like a trend.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2022 US Monitor Final Demand is Struggling, but Recession is not Inevitable

  • Q3 GDP growth flattered to deceive; domestic final demand barely rose.
  • The Q3 ECI should offer a bit of hope on the wages front, but the numbers are hard to forecast.
  • One monthly drop in core capex orders proves nothing, but weaker business surveys are ominous. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Struggling, but the News is not All Terrible

  • Manufacturing is struggling, but autos will flatter the production numbers as supply chains ease further.
  • Capex plans in the Empire State survey have risen for three straight months, but other surveys are weaker.
  • No end in sight for homebuilders’ misery; the latest surge in mortgage rates is yet to work through.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Sept 2022 US Monitor Labor Market Uncertainties Abound, but the Big Picture is Still Strong

  • Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
  • Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
  • The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2022 US Monitor New Auto Sales Likely Stagnated in August, but Better News is Coming

  • Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
  • The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
  • ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2022 US Monitor Home Prices are Falling, Take no Comfort from the Case-Shiller Data

Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence