Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Delta is boosting sales of goods; what’s happening to services?
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
- Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
- It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
- As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.
- In one line: Solid orders growth, despite China slowdown and supply-chain problems.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
- We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
- Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
- Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.
- The FOMC is on course to taper in November, provid- ed markets aren't in turmoil over the debt ceiling.
- The Fed's new economic forecasts are much more realistic, but FOMC opinions are spread widely.
- Chair Powell remains confident that inflation will be contained; upward forecast revisions are no big deal.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
- In one line: A modest pleasant surprise, but no return to the peaks is in the cards.
- Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
- States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
- The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.
- In one line: Manufacturing in the Northeast is outperforming; don’t worry about claims.
- Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
- Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
- It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.
- In one line: Puzzlingly great, and it probably can’t last.
- Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
- …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
- The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex
- The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
- Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
- The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.
The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.
- Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
- Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
- The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.
- The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
- ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
- Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?
- A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
- September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
- Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.
- In one line: A welcome surprise, but unlikely to last.