Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

supply chain

13 Apr 2022 One Better Month is not a Trend, but the March CPI Offers Real Hope

Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.

Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.

Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Apr 2022 Inflation Peak Arrives; the Downshift Could be Disorientingly Fast

Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.

The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.

The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Mar 2022 The Fed's Intent is Clear, but Risks Abound, in Both Directions

  • The Fed's plan to hike seven times this year is based on inflation forecasts which look too bearish…
  • …But longer-run rate forecasts look too optimistic; perhaps because no one now wants to talk about r*.
  • Retail sales data show consumers not fazed by Omicron; downside risk for February IP data today. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Mar 2022 Inflation will Start to Fall in Q2, but How Far, and How Fast

  • Headline and core inflation will peak in March; the key question now is the speed of the subsequent drop.
  • The Fed needs to see falling vehicle prices, slower wage gains and improving supply chains.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but they aren't certain in terms of both timing and extent.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, February

In one line: Expansion continues; supply chain pressures chronic

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Mar 2022 The Post-Omicron Rebound is Strong, but Beware Data Issues

  • The post-Omicron rebound in demand for consumer services is underway, but watch out for base effects.
  • Manufacturing growth appears to be slowing, but the sector continues to expand.
  • The soaring trade deficit and rapid domestic inventory rebuild are two sides of the same coin.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Feb 2022 Downside Risks for Spending and the Core PCE Deflator in January

  • Consumption jumped in January, but the increase likely was constrained by weakness in services.
  • Downside risk for the core PCE deflator; look out for a hefty drop in airline fares.
  • Severe weather and Omicron probably depressed January durable goods orders and new home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Feb 2022 No Decisions Made at the January FOMC, Opinions Appear Split

  • The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
  • The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
  • Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Feb 2022 Russia will Come off Worst in the Long Run if Putin Invades Ukraine

  • The extreme uncertainty over developments in Ukraine make the macro implications unclear.
  • A war would drive up energy prices, but Europe wouldn't freeze, given alternative supply sources.
  • The permanent hit to relations with Russia would drive up spending on defense and energy security.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Feb 2022 Inflation is Approaching its Peak, but it's not Quite there Yet

  • No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
  • The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
  • ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Feb 2022 Mortgage Demand is Starting to Soften in the Face of Higher Rates

  • Higher mortgage rates are starting to depress demand; home sales will fall through mid-year, at least.
  • Falling demand and rising inventory will slow price gains and, eventually, dampen rent pressures.
  • The NFIB survey hints that the labor market might be easing a bit, at the margin.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Feb 2022 Faster Wage Growth Matters More to the Fed than January's Payroll Gain

  • The upward revisions to wage growth will be deeply unwelcome at the Fed; expect more hawkish talk.
  • Rate hikes at the next three meetings are a decent bet; the Fed needs to send a clear signal.
  • Omicron has hit demand but not payrolls; that could yet change in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Feb 2022 ADP is a Wild Card Today, Like all the January Employment Data

  • January's ADP employment number today is a wild card, thanks to the Omicron Covid hit.
  • Excess labor demand is no longer rising, but it has not yet started to fall.
  • Supply chain pressures are easing, but normalcy is still some way off.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Jan 2022 The Omicron Hit is Set to Limit the Fed's Freedom to Act in March

  • We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
  • The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
  • By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Jan 2022 A March Hike but no Balance Sheet Decisions yet, all Options Open

  • Rates will rise in March, but Powell suggests no bal- ance sheet run-off announcement until May...
  • ...Even May is not certain, given the likelihood of a run of very weak activity data between now and then.
  • Q4 GDP growth enjoyed a last-minute boost from surging December inventories, upside risk today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Jan 2022 Consumers are Under Pressure, but the Omicron Hit will Fade Soon

  • Consumers are under short-term pressure from all sides, but the turn in spending will likely come soon.
  • Payrolls will be a bit slower to respond to falling Covid cases than the real-time activity data...
  • ...The January and February reports will both be scarred by Omicron, even as inflation rises further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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